Sunday, October 7, 2012

Waiting for something to happen

Market went up this week but not enough to make a decisive break on the upside. It remains slightly bellow the previous high on the weekly chart. Despite the few points gained this week the intra-day action was quite bearish, strong mornings but weak afternoons, almost reversal days in a few instances. What I don't like, from a bullish point of view, is that the market didn't react strongly once the QE3 news was released. We had a couple of days on the upside with a nice gain but that's it. No continuation, no meaningful rally. Granted the QE3 news hit the Wall Street after a nice three months rally! Keeping this in mind I am not as bullish as I was 2-3 weeks ago. If market manages to establish a clear higher high (1,490 or above) the rally is saved but any pull back before that and especially a drop bellow the most recent low on weekly chart (1,440) could spell trouble. 

Daily and two hours charts look a little bit better in a sense that market managed to equalize the most recent high (around 1,470) but no higher high as well. The 3-4 months rally uptrend line is around 1,420 which coincides with the rising SMA 50. So somewhere in the 1,420-1,440 area SPX should find support on intermediate time frame. 

Two hours chart shows a positive EMAs crossing and market above SMA 120. Also market is above both EMAs which usually translate in the fact that is a little bit overbought in short term time frame so a drop in the 1,450 area wouldn't be surprising.  

In conclusion, I remain bullish on long and intermediate time frames but I keep a close eye on a rally that seems to be out of steam despite QE3. 

All the best!


P.S. Two stocks you may want to consider, EPOC and ENOC

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