Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Careful here

As you noticed I usually write a post at the end of the week. However, I am writing the third post in three consecutive trading days because things are unfolding very fast. The last front of defense for bulls, the 4 months uptrend line, was succesfuly defended. We have now a second day on the upside, that is a nice bounce up from the uptrend line. SPX has moved above the rising SMA 120 but EMAS are not giving yet a bullish crossing. This may be one of those whip-saws, this one probably 20-30 points loss, but this is the price I need to pay for trying to be (most of the time) on the right side. Link

Daily DMI has turned positive and SPX is now above rising SMA 50.

Since the signals from EMAs crossing are fuzzy at the moment I need to look at other indicators. The most important at this point is for SPX to get a higher high, somewhere above 1,460 on weekly chart. At the moment we have two lower highs and two lower lows which is bearish. To get bullish once again SPX needs a fresh higher high. If markets moves down in the next few days before establishing a higher high we are going to have three lower highs which again is going to be bearish. 

As expected UNG moved down from the upper edge of the uptrend channel and is going to be a good buy once it reaches the lower edge, somewhere around 19.5. The most remarkable thing about UNG is that we have now a "golden cross" for the first time since the beginning of 2008. This plus weekly DMI on the positive side makes UNG at its most bullish momentum in four years. 

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