Saturday, December 17, 2011

Bearish action

 SPX went up in the morning  3 times this week, just to gave up almost all gains. This is bearish, of course at least on short term.

The opposite is true when market tries to make a new low then bounce up immediately as that level is touched. Gold looks in this position at the moment. The major uptrend line is around 152 on GLD or 1560 on gold. Gold touched that level a few times intra-day followed by a move on the upside.

On intermediate time frame SPX it's exactly in the middle of the "symmetrical triangle". The upper edge is around 1255, the lower edge is around 1185. I am talking here about the symmetrical triangle formed in the last 3 months. If you look at the one formed by the uptrend line on weekly chart the edges are a little bit pushed further away, upper edge around 1260 and the lower edge around 1170. It doesn't really matter which triangle you have in mind since the edges are pretty much similar. The idea is if any of this edges are "conquered" the move in that direction is going to get speed. Since the 2009-2011 uptrend line was crossed already 3 times, another cross could be the one pushing SPX into a new, fresh bear market. 

According to my timing indicators we are already in the bear market (EMA 20 crossing EMA 40 on weekly chart, market bellow a declining SMA 200) but fundamentals are not there yet. As you know to be in a bear market we need to have two consecutive quarters with negative growth. Fundamentals are usually 6-9 months behind the technicals. Last recession market started collapsing in October 2007 but we didn't know about the negative growth on the first quarter until April 2008 and the bear market was official 3 months later when we had the confirmation that the second quarter of 2008 had also negative growth.

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