Monday, June 6, 2011

The case for UNG

How many times did you hear that the natural gas has hit the bottom? Personally I hear this everyday since UNG hit $50, two years ago. Meantime price has plunged further down to 12 after going as low as 10.
This time it may be true. There are good technical signals that UNG is at or very close to the bottom.

Most important of all is that the weekly DMI has turned positive for the first time since ... July 2008 when UNG was around 90!!! This is a very long time! Looking back on the chart the best pair of EMAs that didn't get a false "buy" signal is EMA 8-EMA 16 on weekly chart or EMA40-EMA80 on daily chart. On weekly chart they are crossing a little bit, not convincing but the crossing is there. We also have the price above SMA 32 (weekly), the moving average that functioned as the best resistance level in the last 3 years. SMA 32 corresponds to SMa 160 on daily chart but also notice that UNG is above SMA 200.

Just to let you know, I am buying a little bit right here and I reserve the bulk of the buying after I'll have clear signals. I'll keep a very close eye on this ETF!

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