Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Sell signal. Is it for real?

Market went down for a second straight day. However, bulls managed to pare some loses and SPX lost only 8 points after being down as much as 14 points around 1 pm. At 1 pm oil started going down after briefly reaching $100 per barrel so the stocks and oil were 100% correlated today.

EMAs did cross and market moved bellow SMA 120 but after getting a fake sell signal on January 31st I am a little bit cautious. I must say it looks more real this time. The two EMAs are farther apart than at the end of January and price did not even made an attempt to come closer to SMA 120. Daily DMI has turned negative for the first time since mid November.

Even more EMAs also crossed for DOW a thing that didn't happen on January 31st.

I am trying to understand why market players are more worried now than they were a few weeks ago when Egypt crisis arose. For one, Libya it's a much bigger oil player than Egypt, then it looks like Gadhafi is going to push the country into a civil war than giving up the power. But I think even scarier is that Libya may not not be the last country in the region to see huge riots. If oil jumps to $110-130 it's going to put a lot of pressure on the global recovery. This is the big deal!

Let's see if bears manage to consolidate their position tomorrow.

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