Friday, August 13, 2010

Bearish momentum

It's amazing how easy momentum can change from a positive to a negative one in a matter of days. Only one time daily DMI changed sides so often in a matter of days, in November-December when we trade in the 1080-1120 range. Back then SPX traded in range for 6 weeks now from almost 12 weeks and it doesn't seem to end soon.

Besides daily DMI beeing deeply in red I notice an "engulfing candle" on weekly chart which means that we see another 1-2 weeks in red. Of course is not a guarantee like anything else in the stock market but there is a higher that 50% probability that it will happen.

One thing to cheer up the bears a little bit is that the volume is decreasing signaling that bears don't seem too motivated to push the index further down. It may also be due to the fact SPX is approaching the 1070 level I keep mentioning lately as a decent support level based on "volume at price" indicator. Please note that we've seen volume going down but the trend continuing in the same direction (like at the beginning of the last rally, cyan arrow).

If you ask me the most likely scenario for the next week is a test of 1070 then eventually a weak bounce up  (bellow 1100). This is my personal bias, my gut feelings, not exactly what the charts are saying. Next week is also an option expiration week which usually goes up except the last day, on Friday that tends to end in red. At least that was what happened in the last few months. We shall see!

All the best!


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