Thursday, June 20, 2013

Correction finally here?

This is one of the strangest rally we had since the March 2009 bottom. No other rally fooled me more than the present one. Is this the end of this long rally? Probably, but after being wrong twice in a row my level of confidence is not so high at the moment. What happens now and din't happen during the previous fake sell signals? First of all, SPX slipped bellow SMA 50 on daily chart, a level that offered a very good support since November last year. Even more important, SPX went bellow a very well established uptrend line. 

Another event that happened for the first time since the beginning of the rally is SPX slipping bellow SMA 120 on 4 hours chart. EMAs are not giving a bearish crossing yet but they are touching, something that didn't happen in the last 7 months. No matter the final outcome, this is the most bearish momentum in 7 months.

Weekly chart doesn't provide too much information, except a way to figure out the first posible support level that is around 1,555. Weekly DMI remains positive for now. 

Gold and silver are hammered again, no surprise here since both of them are already in a bear market.

What I found interesting is the market reaction to Ben's comment that he is going to end up the quantitative easing. This is in fact a positive thing, it means that he thinks the market is robust enough to continue growing without the QE. Apparently the market participants are not convinced that this is the case, a.k.a. the market needs more money to survive. Or it may be just an escuse to take some profit after such a long rally. On the way down, from 2007 to 2009 I remember Feds lowering the interest rate, an event that was always followed by a rally in the market. I couldn't understand the market's reaction since a decrease in the interest rate was a clear sign that the economy was in a big trouble. Rest assured a few weeks after a temporary rally the market was establishing fresh lower lows. 

What happens now is the reverse of lowering the interest rates, a sign that the economy is on right path. If Ben is right expect another powerful rally after this correction is done. 

All the best!


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