Friday, February 1, 2013

Round numbers

After SPX reaching 1,500 it was Dow's time to climb above 14,000. These numbers don't have any special meaning from TA point of view, they are just round numbers but people like to make a big deal about them. What is important is that market is very close to the all time highs, 1,550 for SPX and 14,250 for Dow. 

Market continues to be overbought on short and intermediate time frames but bulls don't seem to care. It was actually overbought the whole month of January but SPX advanced at a very high pace without any hesitation. 

What will happen next is hard to tell. Most likely this bullishness is going to be enough to push SPX further up but I am not sure for how long. In truth, I hardly remember any other time in the last 5 years when SPX remained overbought for so many days. What is even scarier is that the market does not react to news anymore. We had a pretty bad piece of data this week, the Q4 GDP that came at -0.1%, but market refused to go down despite the overbought condition. Today we had mixed data, an unimpressive job creation number, a small rise in unemployment rate but a revised job creation number, 300,000 for the whole 2012 which doesn't seem too much but  nevertheless market rallied today.

If you are eager to get short I suggest you to wait a little bit more since this irrational bullishness most likely will continue. I say that better lose a few points than shorting too soon and get frustrated that market doesn't go down. Wait for the trend to change. It is probably going closer and closer. If market is going to behave like it did in the past 4 years the trend will probably change somewhere in the 1,520-1,550 area. 

All the best!


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