Monday, November 26, 2012

Very close to a "buy" signal ...

... but we're not there yet. SPX has moved pretty aggressively last week but did not managed to climb above SMA 120 on two hours chart that now is around 1,410, the same area that saw some nice volume on the way down. So we are talking about a decent resistance level. EMAs are touching but they are not crossing yet.

Daily chart shows a neutral DMI but a rise above one of the two downtrend lines. Another resistance level could be around SMA 50 (1,425)

It's hard to believe that market will go straight up from here even if the 1,350 was indeed the bottom.
Look at the volume on daily chart (SPY). Very nice volume on the reversal day (bullish) but decreasing volume the next four days (bearish). I don't usually pay attention at volume in general but I tend to be very careful at potential tops or bottoms since there the volume can tell you the difference between a fake top/bottom or a real one. My guess is that market is going to suffer another decent correction before moving up. Remember that the major support is around the 4 years uptrend line that is now around 1,325.

Weekly chart doesn't tell too much. what is obvious is that SPX did not make a higher high on this time frame. To make one SPX needs to go above 1,415. Also weekly DMI remains pretty bearish, one more reason to think that the correction is not done yet.


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