Monday, July 23, 2012

Still inside the trading channel

SPX moved down recently but remains inside the trading channel. The futures are havily down and I am not sure if SPX is going to remain above the lower edge of the trading channel (1,350) after today's action. Even if market is going to move bellow 1,350 bulls can still, technically, make a turn back if they manage to keep SPX above the most recent low, 1,335. Bellow 1,335 bears are going to be in control for sure. Another slightly bearish sign is that SPX did not manage to touch the upper edge of the trading channel (1,390).

On hourly chart the EMAs crossing gave two whip-saws recently. At this point I would rather trust an EMAs crossing on two hours chart, one that gave only one whip-saw since February. Of course by chosing 2 hours chart over one hour chart all the signals, buy" or "sell", are going to be delayed. On two hours chart market still looks bullish, with SPX above rising SMA 120 and no bearish EMAs crossing yet. This could change of course if market moves today 10-14 points down and is going to go down for the rest of the week. But, as usual, I don't like to anticipate the next market move, I would rather react to its moves so let's see how is going to end today and for the rest of the week.

Longer time frame remains bearish, with weekly DMI still in red but we should take note that last week ended up on the upside and SPX is close to its higher level in two months. Also SMA 50 is not going down anymore but SMA 200 is still rising making a "death cross" posible soon. As I mentioned in the past despite the fact that a "death cross" is bearish, all "death crosses" happened since March 2009 were actually buying opportunities. 

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