Thursday, April 12, 2012

Bullish action today...

...but the intermediate time frame is still bearish. Yesterday bulls managed to push SPX 10 points up but the action was not particularly bullish, they advanced in the morning then they gave up half of the gains by the end of the day. However, today the action was bullish, bulls started close to yesterday's close value then push SPX up and ended the day in a high note. Since the bearish momentum is higher right than it was a month ago the intermediate time frame is still bearish, we still have a bearish EMAs crossing and the index is bellow the declining SMA 120. Yet bears must be nervous here since they saw their little profit vanished more than once in the recent past after market seemed to go down just to see bulls recovering nicely in a matter of a few days.

To turn the table in their favor bulls need to gain another 10-20 points. That will probably be enough to make EMAs to give a bullish crossing, daily DMI to turn positive and SPX to climb above SMA 120 that is now around 1,398.

For now I remain cautiously bearish and wait for bulls to convince me they are serious in their attempt to make this market look bullish, once again, in every time frame.


P.S. I am interested only in hourly chart but faster players can use the same pair of EMAs but on faster time frames, such as 10 or 15 minutes charts. The problem with this faster time frames is that they are giving more whip-saws than the hourly chart and you need to spend more money on commissions since  you need to trade more often. The advantage is that in times when market is undecided they give better entry and exit points. Bellow is a 10 minutes chart that worked pretty well recently. The same with 15 minutes chart. according to this shorter time frames you were supposed to go long today around 1,375. The problem is that a down day tomorrow is going to give another "sell" signal at a level probably bellow 1,375.

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