Monday, March 5, 2012

Some damage today

A second down day in a row produced some damage at the technical level. DMI remains positive on both daily and weekly charts. SPX moved bellow the lower edge of a trading channel established since December 27. I am not going to make a big deal about this since the uptrend slope was hard to sustain. SPX can still move up but at a slower pace.

SPX touched SMA 120 today but found support there (1,359) and recovered a few points by the end of the day. EMAs are pointing down but there is no bearish crossing yet. 

I told you on Friday that all indexes are bullish but I was actually wrong. I forgot to check RUT 2,000 the only index that shows negative daily DMI and a bearish EMAs crossing on hourly chart, a crossing that happened on March 1st. There is a reason I am mostly watching SPX and not other index. SPX is never the first nor the last to show a change in the uptrend or downtrend. 

Dow moved bellow SMA 120 on hourly chart for the first time in four month. However, by the end of the day it moved above SMA 120. If you zoom in you may see a tiny bearish EMAs crossing.

Nasdaq is touching SMA 120 for the first time in four months and EMAs are almost crossing. However, I must say that this particular set of EMAs and SMA 120 doesn't function as well for Nasdaq. They are mainly best fitted for SPX and Dow. 

In conclusion, the intermediate time frame trend has not changed yet but indexes are at their most bearish point in four month when the rally started. Trimming the longs seems like a good idea at this point. Too early to go short but this could change in a matter of 1-2 days. 

All the best!


P.S. For a good laugh please visit my kid blog. He likes to collect flags from different countries. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thank you for your feed-back