Sunday, August 7, 2011

Bear market?

One my indicators, SMA 75 on weekly chart was crossed for the first time since March 2009? This is very serious! EMa 20 did not cross EMa 40 yet (again on weekly chart) so I am not 100% convinced that SPX slipped into the bear market but it's very close to that point.

No "death" cross yet but is getting very close, at least on weekly chart.

If bear market is here we are going to see further plunge on all indexes probably followed by a relief rally that is going to stop bellow SMA 75. By that time EMA 20 is going to cross EMA 40 on weekly chart giving a clear "sell" signal for any bull left in the market.

On short term anything is possible with market most likely going down on Monday due to S&P downgrade. After that, remains to be seen. Looking at weekly DMI (very high negative half) I would be tempted to believe that we may see a bounce by the end of this week but it's just a speculation. 

All the best!


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