Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Dollar rally scares stocks away

I haven't watch the news today but I guess there were rumors that somebody stole Bernake's printing machine :) Otherwise, I don't understand why did the dollar rally. You don't believe me that stocks went down because of the dollar? Look at the chart bellow, UUP vs. SPY. They have perfect mirror images.

I don't trade UUP but since I use it two days ago as an example how to chose the best pair of EMAs for an ETF let's have a look at the daily chart and spare a moment to see what conclussions can we draw from today's price action.

Price moved above EMA15 but is still bellow EMA30. There is a downtrend ahead so it is possible that UUP may bounce into this downtrend line then move further down. However, if UUP goes above the trendline and EMAs are going to give a bullish crossing most likely we are going to see more strength in the dollar.

As expected SPX cooled down a little bit and is trading now in between EMA25 and EMA50 on 60 minutes chart. What we need to watch is the five days SMA that is around 1192. A move bellow this level most likely is going to result in a bearish EMAs crossing but until then let's hold on our longs. You can take some profit off the table if you are getting nervous but I don't advice anybody to go short since the trend is still up.

All the best!


P.S. At Blankfiend's suggestion I added a better "comments" interface.  I am encouraging you to use it to communicate with me and among each other.

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