Thursday, July 22, 2010

The triangle is almost complete

The downtrend line and the support line at 1050 are almost colliding so the "triangle" pattern is pretty much complete. From now on the downtrend line does not represent a reasonable support level since the price is going to hit the support line at 1050 before hitting the downtrend line. The action was bullish this week  and unless tomorrow market is going to plunge bellow 1064 the bulls are going to claim this week in their favor. The trouble is that there are no good support levels so it takes only a major company to miss the earnings to bring the market down.

The best "support" for the bulls is the momentum as evidenced by the daily DMI that one more time is ready to turn green. On daily and especially on weekly charts DMI changing direction is a pretty rare event. Bears got an "warning" 10 days ago when DMI turned briefly positive. If DMI turns green again there is a very good chance that the long term momentum is going to turn bullish for good. On bears' support comes the fantastic resistance level around 1100 and the fact that we continue to trade in range for exactly two months (we are approaching the upper edge of this trading range). If bulls manage to above 1105 I think long term players (who should be out of the market since market is bellow SMA200) can move in since another conquest of the SMA200 level in going to happen in a much more bullish context compared to a month ago because at 1113 (SMA200) DMI is going to be very bullish. Very cations long term players should wait for weekly DMI to turn bullish. The trick is to wait for these events to happen then to react. I know this strategy didn't work lately (because it's a momentum strategy, therefore you're getting whip-sawed in a trendless market) but most of the time, on the long term, market is trending either up or down so I think is useful.

The highest volume in the last two months happened around 1060-1070. This may prove to be an interesting support level despite the fact is not that obvious when looking at charts unless you look on weekly charts where you can see a multi-month support line around 1060.


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