Monday, July 26, 2010

DMI consolidates

Here is my 11 cents opinion (that's how much I made from my AdSense adds today :), DMI continues to consolidate its position so it's increasingly likely that we are going to get out of the trading range for good. Nothing is for sure in the stocks market, you already know this, but you need to bet on the direction that has the highest probability. Keeping in mind the good tracking record of daily DMI we should expect more upside movement from here. Sure SPX is not going to move in straight line from here but I trust today's break of the 1105 resistance level more than I did it in June. The difference? You guessed right! It's called DMI. Back then SPX started moving down before DMI had the chance to turn green. When are we going to have a down day most likely DMI  won't change red again. That is going to be a good entry point for some reluctant bulls.

Another well watched level was touched today, SMA200. We are talking here only about 2 points on SPX so is not that significant right now but it can become significant in the next few days so long term players who use SMA200 as a timing method prepare to get in. 

Hourly chart doesn't look bad either, DMI is positive, price is above a rising  5 days SMA and you can easily notice EMAs crossing.

Playing devil's advocate I am redirecting you to yesterday's article where I posted a chart with "volume at price" indicator that not only gives you the price levels where most of the volume occurred in the past but also tells you how much of the total volume belongs to bulls and how much to the bears. Looking at the chart you will notice that bulls outpaced bears almost 2:1 which means that this level (1100) is a better resistance level than a support one. We already passed this level so now it should act as a support but my point is that you should expect this level to offer less support if this market is going to go down than the resistance you saw it when the SPX was bellow 1100. This is the bearish scenario but at this moment I do favor the bulls over the bears. My skepticism comes from the fact that I was humbled by this market many times and I like to present both faces of the coin even if I do favor one of them. Every single day I am seeing people absolutely sure that market is going either up or down and I know for a fact that I am either dealing with newbies or with people investing for a while but too full of themselves to admit they could be wrong. Maybe this attitude make them winners in this aggressive World where we are living but in stock market stubborn guy pay their arrogance with their own money.



  1. This is a short fire...i don't trust it''ll ariive at 1130.We could have a double high at thi s leve or just a spike.This is a false passing of 1105 like has been in the last times.
    The starting has been too verical and without a slow recovery.It's easy now ona day at the end of the week a stron sell off that cancel s everithing.There are no fondamentasls and the bad datas of last weeks were covered by quartr datas.When quarter datas that hel market eill end then there'll be a strong fall in end of august end september.Now a lateral movementbetween 1130-1010 then below 1000.It's a long trend bear market.Oil i close to strong resistances and also € and markets are close to a collapse.Technical anlisys ins useful during a strong trend but in this moments it's diificult its' ll become soon useful when will start after the quarter datas the real bear trend.

  2. I do agree that technical analysis didn't work for me lately since I am mostly interested in long and intermediate time frames. However, it did work for those interested in shorter time frames since there were big swings up and down and they were able to make good money. I made very good money on the way down from 1220 to, say, 1100 then I've been whip-sawed a few times.

    Keep an eye on daily DMI, if it turns red again go short, otherwise stay in cash or go long.


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