Friday, July 9, 2010

Third up day in a row

We didn't have three up days in a row since mid April. I don't think this is extremely significant, just a fact to cheer up the bulls. SPX cleared another two resistance levels, 1060 (the "neckline" on weekly chart) and 1067, the previous lower edge of the 1067-1105 trading range. DMI on 60 minutes chart has turned positive yesterday and has consolidated its position today. Market is moving way too fast for my timing indicators to make me money, especially EMAs crossing. I bet tomorrow EMA50 is going to cross EMA100 on 30 minutes chart even if market remains unchanged or is going down a little bit but at 1080 it may be a little bit too late. I say this because around 1080 is the second downtrend line and we may see some good resistance there. A sharp move down from 1080 is going to keep the long term downtrend intact and I would expect SPX to go slip bellow previous low, around 1020.

The only people making money in this environment are very short time traders, anybody else, either bulls or bears who kept their stocks longer than 3-5 days were lucky if they've got even in the last month or so.

I'll keep my eye on the main downtrend line. If SPX manages to close above this line it may give another shot at SMA200. A second scenario would be SPX moving down from the downtrend line but finds support in the 1045-1050 area, that is still going to be good for bulls. The third scenario is the one I mentioned above, SPX hits the downtrend line then goes down like a stone, with no support at 1045-1050, opening the possibility of moving bellow the 1020 low. I'll also keep an eye on DMI, a momentum indicator, especially on 60 minutes chart.

Have a look at some stocks that have shown some strength lately, CF, THO, CCRT, BP, MOS.

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