Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Another reversal day

It doesn't mean too much since it was a bearish reversal in a powerful downtrend. It does matter when it goes against the main trend like it did happen two weeks ago or on February 5th (bullish reversal). At least we finished in green today after 5 straight down days! As I said in the previous article if DMI on 60 minutes turns green bulls may hope for a short term rebound.

The resistance ahead is pretty good, first the downtrend line then the 1045 resistance line. On daily and weekly charts the resistance line is at 1050 and 1060 respectively so we should consider the whole 1045-1060 area as a resistance level (in general you should view support and resistance as areas not fixed levels). SPX did bump into the downtrend line in the morning (at 1040, not 1035 as I said in the previous article) then went down like a stone. Tomorrow is going to be easier to go above this downtrend line since now is stands around 1032. I won't have any bullish impulse unless I see at least DMI on hourly turned positive that is a very early timing indicator and therefore not as reliable as EMA50 crossing EMA100 on 30 minutes chart.

We do have now a weak 3 days support line at 1021 and a powerful downtrend line at 1032. On short term any close above 1032 or bellow 1021 will pick the winner. On long term things look really bearish, with  SPX bellow a flat SMA200. Unless bulls move quick SMA200 is going to tilt down, the ultimate bearish signal.


P.S. Meantime BP has generated a "buy" signal!

1 comment:

  1. Within 25/07/2010 Nasdaq and S&P below 1999 and 999.Market will lose a 10-15 %.Has it sense look for short term bounces?

    Till the last week of July is strong bear market.
    In August a bounce and then from the last of August down all the fall.-25% from today prices in December.2011 with all new absolute lows.
    Long term bear trend.It's only Us financial system collapse.Nothing else.


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