Saturday, January 22, 2011

What's next?

A very good day to trim the longs since market's action looked pretty bearish. We had a mini-rally in the morning due to GOOG, AMD and GE earnings, then the market went down and ended up pretty flat. Market seems to lost the "fuel", not even a series of very good earnings is able to move it forward. The only index that remains bullish is DOW that made higher high today due mostly to GE 7% jump on the upside. All other indexes, SPX, Nasdaq, Russsell are bellow January 18th high. 

Looking at hourly chart I can see both EMAs being flat at this moment and SPX 8 points above SMA 120. There is no EMAs crossing so no "sell" signal yet.

On short term two levels seem to be important, 1277 and 1286. By Monday SMA 120 is going to climb up to 1276-1277 so this level is going to be a support for both short and intermediate terms.

Dollar moved down again and is probably going to stay low as long as the Feds keep the interest rates close to zero.

When market touches temporary tops it tends to move one day up, one day down for a few days before collapsing. This is just an observation, not something one can trust as a buy-sell signal. Next week we are going to have a better picture of market players' intentions. There is a very good chance I am going to get a "sell" signal soon but I am not going to act, not going to go short before I can actually see the sell signal. On long term market remains bullish.


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