Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Weird trading day

Citi and Delta missed the estimates, AAPL went down on Jobs' health concerns but market went up! Doesn't make sense! Even more weird VIX went also up today. If bulls pushed the market up today on bad news what are they going to do tomorrow in light of the very good earnings reported by IBM and AAPL after hours?

I am not surprised that market is going up now, at the beginning of this earning season, since this is how it has behaved during previous earning seasons but not going down even a little bit when major companies misses estimates it's a sign of irrational bullishness. I may trim some of the longs here but I am not going short unless I see market bellow SMA 120 and a bearish EMA25-EMA50 crossing. I don't want to argue with the market.

SPX is once again 24 points above SMA 120 which sits today around 1271.

Dollar went down today is giving a weak "sell" signal, EMA 15 is slightly crossing EMA 30 on daily chart. 

By the end of this month the majority of the big companies are going to report their earnings. In February we have only XOM, A, PFE, V, MA (and probably a few more big companies I missed) but the core of the earnings is going to end next week. A rise towards 1320, a level I mentioned many times in the recent past (see "volume at price" indicator) it's very possible keeping in mind this extremely bullish momentum. After that... I don't know, remains to be seen.

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