Monday, January 3, 2011

Good start

Bulls started very well this year with SPX advancing no less than 14 points and establishing a new two year high. As I said before SPX has room for a few more points according to "volume at price" that is showing a huge volume between 1220 and 1320. I expect SPX to slow down once 1320-1350 area is touched. A huge volume in the last 5 years at this price indicates that many bulls were trapped at this level and they may be happy to (finally) get even. Of course they are not really going to get even since the dollar plunged meantime but this is an aspect almost no market player takes into consideration. One who bought a stock at $25 would be happy to sell it at $25 even if the dollar is much weaker now. It's psychological!

The volume was decent on SPY and very good on QQQQ and IWV, both jumping over 50 days moving average. Once again price is above both EMAs on hourly chart and 22 points above SMA 120 (1250). In general I would like to see market no more than 10 points above SMA 120 so I consider market overbought on short term.

Daily and weekly DMI are almost at their highest since 2009. This actually worries me a little bit since this bullishness can't be sustainable. At least not at this pace. An extreme DMI value is only an warning signal, it doesn't necessarily signal a top or a bottom. After SPX hit an extreme value, in April it took another couple of weeks until the market had a correction. During the flash crash I noticed the highest negative DMI level. However, that was not the bottom, the bottom was in July. The same happened during the scary September 2008 crash, the weekly DMI was at its highest negative value but the bottom was in March 2009.

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