Thursday, November 17, 2011

Testing the trading range

I am going to be short since I can't write very fast (had a small accident on my right hand). SPX is once again testing the upper edge of the former trading range. Last time it touched this level market bounced up to 1,275. This time it may be different. If market goes down tomorrow and the next week, the next support level is very close, 1,208 (SMA 50). I can hardly see any support level from 1,208 to 1,120, the lower edge of the former trading range.

On weekly chart, notice that SPX went a little bit bellow SMA75 and that DMI continues to stay on red. It turned negative in July around 1270 and never turned green afterwards. Also notice that the "death cross" is still present.

As you remember the only time frame that gave some decent buy and sell signals was the 2 hours chart. Notice that EMAs are slightly crossing on the bearish side and that market is bellow SMA 120.

Tomorrow is a key day. If market bounce up bulls are saved once again. If it goes down most likely we are at the beginning of a new "wave" on the downside. Sure some of you may say the best entry for shorts was yesterday at 1260. Well... remember that my timing method doesn't catch neither the tops nor the bottoms but enough to make a profitable trade.

all the best!


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