Friday, December 10, 2010

Quietly moving up

Not too much drama this week. SPX stadily moved up 3-4 points each day and finished the week 14 points above November 8th high. Daily and weekly DMI are very bullish which shows that the long time frame momentum is decisively bullish. 

Volume still low on SPY today even a little bit lower than yesterday. This is not particularly good for the bulls but you need to remember that "only price pays". Nothing is more important than the price, volume is only a confirmation of a price movement. It's nice when the volume agrees with the direction of the market but if it doesn't don't over interpret  this aspect. 

However, there is room for a significant correction without affecting the uptrend! My impression is that market went ahead of itself. It's 8 points above EMA25, 15 points above EMA50 and a whooping 35 points above SMA 120 on hourly chart. This is pretty normal behavior at the beginning of a new trend but the problem is we are not actually at a beginning of a new uptrend but it's rather a continuation of the uptrend started in September with a whip-saw in between. I hope I am wrong since I am a little bit long here but that's how I see the present price action.

Have a nice weekend!

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