Friday, December 24, 2010

Fourth bullish week in a row

Another good week for bulls, granted on a very low volume but that it was expected since that's what happens before major holidays. SPX managed to stay above both EMAs on hourly chart, it is now 8 points above EMA 50 and 20 points above SMA 120 so even a 20 points drop it won't affect the bullishness of the intermediate time frame trend. Last year we had a few good weeks when market traded in range it spiked up in January 2010 just to plunge no less that 100 points after that. It doesn't mean will happen again but just a thought. Usually, this is the time of the year you are supposed to be invested, then in April-May you are supposed to sell ("sell in May and go away"). I don't necessarily follow this advice since market differs from year to year but there is some truth in it. Market tends to be bullish from September to May then tends to be down during the summer. This is important for "buy and hold" crew but not too much for momentum traders who don't care which way the market goes.

Market remains bullish on all time frames, still a little overbought on short term time frame but the gap between price and SMA 120 went down from 35 to 20 points.

We are slightly above September 2008 level when the scary plunge took place. Plenty of trapped bulls will be relieved to "get even" and sell their longs here so market may find it difficult to advance. However there is still room for the upside, another 50-70 points perhaps since "volume at price" indicator over the last two years indicate a very good volume in the 1220-1320 area. From 1320 to 1380 there is not too much volume then we can find another area as a potential resistance level, 1380-1480.

Next week we are probably not going to see too much action either, little volatility and very low volume. When volume is low a lot of weird things happen such as a direct correlation between gold and dollar that happened a lot this week, on Thursday both of them went down after going up in tandem the other days.

Merry Christmas!


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