Monday, September 20, 2010

Major resistance level overcomed

SPX finally managed to climb above 1130, so no triple top. This must please bulls that are waiting for this moment for a while. Daily DMI looks good, last time it looked so bullish was in March. Of course the hourly chart looks very good with EMAs crossing around 1080 and DMI on green.

Not too much resistance ahead since the move on the downside was violent now we have  a huge gap and gaps tend to get filled pretty fast. This is particularly true if one looks on the weekly charts. On daily charts we have the January peak around 1150 and a small one around 1170 formed one the sharp rebound we had after the May 6 scary day.

Really conservative players should probably wait for weekly DMI to turn positive. It's not there yet but in the last few trading days it did made some good progress. Overall the picture turned bullish and we should expect bulls to push indexes further up.

As I mentioned a few times in the past the market action since March 2009 resembles that of 2004. However, the leg down after 14 month of continued rise looks more bearish this time around. Back then we also had SPX bellow SMA200 but SMA100 did not cross EMA200. This doesn't have any particular meaning, just an observation. The most important thing is that long term EMAs did not give a bearish cross during this recent leg down (it's not that I care since I am making money on either direction but for the sake of the argument).


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