Wednesday, September 29, 2010


Neither bulls nor bears seem to be too comfortable at this point. Bulls seem out of steam, bears were too hurt recently to have enough confidence to try something. 1130 still holds and hourly chart still shows a nice EMAs crossing but DMI has turned negative today. The same happened on the last wave on the upside, back in August, SPX reached 1130, then we had a week were market moved up and down just a little bit, followed by a big drop to 1040. It may not happen this time but bulls should be cautious at this point.

The uptrend line on daily chart is around 1065, it moves very slowly which is good since a slow uptrend line is much more sustainable than a steep one. SMA50 continues to rise but also SMA200 has recently started to rise which is good for the long term time frame since a declining SMA200 spells big trouble. If this rally is going to be for real we should see a "golden cross" soon, SMA50 moving above SMA200. SMA50 moved above SMA100 recently, for the first time since June when we did saw a bearish crossing. EMA50 also moved above EMA100

What should we expect next? As usual I don't try to outguess the market but rather try to react to its moves. Saying that, the intermediate time frame bulls should keep a close eye on EMAs crossing on 60 minute chart and sell if they see a bearish crossing. Long term bulls should watch SMA200 (1117) or at least 1100 level. DMI holds clues regarding the momentum. What I am watching for a long time is DMI on weekly chart. If the weekly DMI turns positive SPX most likely is going to climb above the previous high around 1220. Once again, let's not anticipate what market is going to do, that is a losing game. "Trend is your friend"


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