Sunday, August 29, 2010

Downtrend line challenged

A pretty bullish day on Friday with SPX going down in the morning just to finish 17 points up. Now we are just a little bit above the downtrend but only if we look at the daily chart. On hourly chart, that also takes into consideration the intra-day values, we are slightly bellow the downtrend line.  Also encouraging for the bulls is that SPX managed to climb above both EMA25 and EMA50 but I would trust the bulls only if I see these EMAs crossing each other. The question to be answered next week is if this is the beginning of a new mini-leg on the upside or a third opportunity to short the market. Monday's action is going to give us a nice tip.

On weekly chart please pay attention to EMA20 almost crossing EMA40. When this happened, 3 years ago, it did signal the beginning of a new bear market. EMAs are touching right now and they are going to cross each other unless market is going up from here! SMA75 (around 1045), a moving average that offered support for the 2003-2007 bull market, was also challenged this week. Also notice that we had 3 weeks in a row on the downside for the first time since the start of the plunge, in April 26.


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