Monday, August 9, 2010

Bullish momentum continues...

...not very convincing but the daily DMI is still green. The trouble is that we are witnessing now the formation of a possible "rising wedge", a pattern that is mostly bearish. As you can see bellow we do have an uptrend line around 1120 (which is bullish, of course) also notice that the market is not only making higher lows but also higher highs. Add this to the fact that SPX is above the most recent major high (1120, June's peak), above rising SMA50 and SMA200, daily DMI is positive and we have an almost perfect bullish picture. And indeed it is bullish, no question about that. However, on short term there is a chance the market may move down. The most recent uptrend is formed by three major waves but the amplitude of these waves is decreasing. This gives birth to a "rising wedge" pattern that most of the time is bearish. We don't need to be paranoid here but if we see SPX sharply moving bellow the uptrend line that is going to make room for a bigger drop. SPX can also move quietly out of the wedge, it can move sideways. The third scenario is going to be a break above the upper edge of the wedge that is now around 1140. Remember that both edges are moving up every day but for now we should expect a bounce between these two edges one at 1120 and the other at 1140.

Tomorrow is going to be the perfect opportunity to move out of the rising wedge. Let's see if the market is going to be surprised or not by Feds next move. From what I hear Wall Street is expecting Feds to add more stimulus. If there is not going to be any surprise we are going to remain inside the wedge.

 The hourly chart doesn't bring anything new to the information provided by the daily chart. We still didn't manage to climb above 1031 June 21st intra-day level but as I said before I don't consider this level very important. Besides the support around the uptrend line (1120) also keep in mind two other major support levels, SMA200 (1115) and 1100-1105 area. At this point we should be cautiously bullish.


No comments:

Post a Comment

Thank you for your feed-back