Friday, May 24, 2013

Slightly down

After touching a fresh intra-day high of 1,687, SPX pulled back no less than 30 points the same day. Two attempts (yesterday and today) to push market further down were unsuccessful. After going down to 1,637 in the morning SPX rallied to 1,650 bringing the total loss this week to 15-17 points. this drop was not sufficient to bring any major changes at the technical level. Market remains overbought on short term in my opinion and further lateral consolidation is the most likely scenario.

Despite the 15 points drop the weekly DMI did not move down.

However, daily DMI moved down considerably, now being only slightly positive. 

The four hours chart shows little change. SPX is just barely bellow EMA 25 but SMA 120 is far away, around 1,580. Around the same level you can see the 6 months rally uptrend line.

Gold and silver moved up a little bit this week but they remain vulnerable on long run. Notice the weekly DMI deeply in red.

Overall, market will probably cool down again next week. SPX remains overbought in all time frames and it will be easy for bears to chop another 10-15 points. But, again, this will not change the big picture. To make a big dent in the rally bears need to push SPX bellow the 6 months uptrend line. That would mean a loss of 70 points on SPX. Not an easy job.

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