Friday, February 8, 2013

Sixth week on the upside

Slightly up this week, just 4 points on SPX but a win it's a win so let's give it to bulls again. The first two days of the week have witnessed  a pretty dramatic drop and a rally afterwards, then a couple more failed attempts to either establish a new high or bring market down. Only today bulls managed to push SPX higher enough to establish a fresh higher high. 

As I mentioned many times is better to wait for a sell signal (whatever that signal is for you, for me is a bearish EMAs crossing on two hours chart) than trying to guess the top and go short just to be frustrated that the market either continues to move up or goes in a lateral consolidation phase. There is a very good chance that market will suffer a correction here or a few more points above (1,420-1,440) but I prefer to wait for the sell signal even if this signal will come in the 1,490-1,500 area and losing a few good points this way. Patience it's a virtue in stock market!

There signs that market is close to a temporary top, the volatility we saw this week and especially the cheerleading I notice on a few stock market sites. I saw many people bragging about buying now! Why should I be impress by somebody who is buying now, at 1,500 when the buying time was around 1,390-1,400 when the trend changed. I don't understand these people. I advice you many times, buy when the trend changes then relax for a few good weeks if not months. If you want to take the profit now or wait for a sell signal it's up to you but you are already staying on a nice profit, 100 points on SPX it's a pretty good performance keeping in mind that you didn't fight the trend. 

Like it or not bulls are still in control according to EMAs crossing on two hours chart. The price crossed the moving averages on a couple of occasions which is good, that's how they are supposed to do. Market may suffer a correction here (most likely) but there is a small probability to see market advancing for a few more months before a correction. That's why I am saying, do not go short yet! Take some profit if you are getting nervous but do not go short yet. You will sleep better at night.

I realize that there are people who are getting more out of rally or a plunge (I know somebody who called the last bottom in November exactly the day it happened) but I am not that good and I need to be satisfied with only 70% of each rally or plunge. I sleep better at night knowing that I never fight the trend. 

I promised I am not going to talk about AAPL anymore but here I am again. It looks like AAPL is going to fill the gap down but does that mean that it's safe to buy it yet? Well, that's a big question. Remember the well-established multi-year uptrend line that I was expecting to function as an important support level? Well it didn't do the trick. However, on the way up the same uptrend line may be an important resistance level. If I see AAPL above 495, then I could say the trend has become bullish again. 

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