Friday, November 2, 2012

Flat week

SPX gained 2-3 points this week, not enough o cancel the bearish momentum. Bulls pushed SPX 15 points up yesterday but today gave up almost everything. The two hours chart still shows a bearish EMAs crossing and SPX many points bellow a declining SMA 120.

Market continues to make lower highs and lower lows. I don't think is going to find support around 1,408 but it may find support at 1,400 where I see a pretty nice volume in the last 3 months.

A move bellow 1,400 will mean another lower low and a chance to see the market further down.

How much it may go down from here is hard to say. The most logic levels are SMA 200 (1,380) and 4 years uptrend line (1,320). Elections are going to influence the market next week. Expect volatility on Monday and Tuesday but probably not so much for the rest of the week. Just a reminder, market went up after the last elections in the first week.

AAPL has moved bellow 600 today but also bellow SMA 200. I can't remember when I saw AAPL so bearish. Note that a "golden cross" happened three and a half years ago at 125! Since then no "death cross" but we may see one soon. Weekly DMI that stayed mostly positive in the last 3 and a half years is now negative. The best support level is the multi-year uptrend line that is now around 460. This means that AAPL has room to lose another 100 points and still remaining bullish long term. Around 460-500 it may be a very good entry on this exceptional stock. 

Overall market remains bearish on short and intermediate time frames but is still bullish long term. If weekly DMI turns negative next week we may see the long term challenged. 

Have a nice weekend!


1 comment:

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