Friday, April 20, 2012


SPX is giving mixed signals on intermediate time frame. EMAs are touching with a slightly bearish bias but SPX remains bellow declining SMA 120. So I am giving the benefit of the doubt to bears.

The week was won by bulls, they manage to recover 9 points. They were actually 19 points ahead on Tuesday after a 21 points rally but gave back 5 and 8 points on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and today ended pretty much flat after bulls were pushing for 10 points in the morning. On short term bulls may attempt something as well next week. I notice two higher highs and two higher lows on short term. What bulls need is another higher high, somewhere above 1,395.

Long term remains bullish but there is a warning coming from weekly MACD. As you noticed weekly MACD captured all major uptrends and downtrends in the last few years. MACD is a little bit more sensitive than weekly DMI. Last time it gave a "sell" signal was in April 2011. As you remember back then market went widely up and down for a few good months before going solidly down so I can say weekly MACD gave the "sell' signal a little bit too soon. Right now it looks like is ready to give another "sell" signal. This is just a warning for bulls that are investing on long term. The "sell" signal may very well be cancelled soon, you never now.

For now I would say market remains slightly bearish with bears having the upper hand but not really in control.

Earnings and the situation in Europe are the major market movers. On Monday we are going to see the results of the French elections. If Sarkozy is going to lose as many political analysts predict, we may see the market down since apparently the business world prefers him. These are the rumors at the moment anyway.

Gold, another hot subject, is giving a bearish signal, we have now the so called "death cross" a cross between SMA 50 and SMA 200. Last time I saw a "death cross" on gold was back in 2008 when gold went from 900 to 700. The good news is that the multi-year uptrend line is still intact so a bounce up from this level is also possible at least on short term.

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