Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Downtrend intact

11 am update

SPX is moving up today but the downtrend is still intact. Market may go up to the three days downtrend line (1,355). The important thing is SMA 120. If SPX hits this MA and move immediately down then we will know that the downtrend is for real. Once again, for intermediate time frame the most important level today is 1,359 (SMA 120).

After hours update

SMA 120 remained safe today but bulls managed to recover half of yesterday loss. I've seen this before, last time, if I remember correctly, was in November 2010 when we had a whip-saw. For the bearish momentum to continue we need to see market down tomorrow. We also need to see market making a lower low, a move bellow 1,340 if not tomorrow at least in the next few days.

As usual in the last few years it is hard to make money on the downside with bulls having FEDs covering their back. Rallies are easier to trade than pull-backs.

The good news is that bulls couldn't push the market above the 3 days downtrend line. This is good news on short term but it doesn't do too much to the intermediate time frame I am interested in.

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