Thursday, March 10, 2011

Serious damage

After trading in range for a couple of weeks market finally decided to make a serious move down. A very important technical event happened today, SPX went bellow SMA 50 for the first time since September.

SPX made a lower low on daily chart, moving bellow 1,305, a level where market closed twice in the last two weeks. However, SPX found support at a previous intra-day low, 1,295. Looking on hourly chart one can say that market is still trading in range with 1295 as the lower edge and 1332 as a higher edge, both values being touched twice in the last two weeks. 

With market slipping bellow SMA 50 chances are very good that the plunge will continue. How far is hard to sa, there are plenty of good support areas. The worst case scenario in my view is a drop around 1220, the April's 2010 top that also coincides with the 2009-2011 uptrend line. The economy is showing signs of improvement but oil over $100 may be a hard pill to swallow.

Today market reacted violently to the civil unrest spreading to Saudi Arabia, a country that controls 20% of the World oil supply, plus the trade deficits reported by both US and China.
The most important news that could push market in a direction or the opposite is the unrest in the Arab World.

A few days ago I discovered the most insane ETF called BXDD. It's an S&P500 inverse ETF but it must be a 10x since yesterday went up 21%.

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