Thursday, February 24, 2011

Almost a reversal day

Bearish move in the morning with a fake move up followed by a fresh low around 1294. However, the 15 points rally after hitting 1294 should give bears something to think about. This correction is entirely due to the oil price. If Libya turmoil ends (no sign of this, but just in case...) and oil comes down expect bulls to buy with both hands.

The good thing is that market had no intention to come closer to SMA 120, which is still rising by the way, but I must say this almost reversal day did scare the pants out of my short ETFs. Reversal days are never a good sign for the current trend. Technically it was not a reversal day since the market closed a little bit in red after all but we need to be careful here. In a way the same thing happened yesterday, market hit a lower low then immediately reversed and gained 13 points and that didn't prevent another low today.

Looking on daily chart I can see that SPX manages to stay above the 6 months uptrend line and also above SMA 50 meaning that the long term remains bullish. In November SMA 50 acted as a support level. 1,300 remains the psychological support level and SMA 50 (1287 at the close) an obvious technical level. On the upside, the most important resistance level is SMA 120 (around 1319 at the close).

Dollar went down again but gold and especially silver did not have a good day either (silver lost more than 4%).

I mentioned in the morning that VIX did not behave today, it was mostly down today despite market being also on red. It closed 3.6% down and it went on green only around 2 pm when market plunged 14 points. This shows confusion among market players.

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