Thursday, October 21, 2010

"Noisy" week

Pretty noisy this week, big moves up and down but SPX barely advanced a few points. It remains to be seen if market is going to end in a positive note tomorrow after traders are going to digest the last round of earnings results.

Not too much changes at the technical level. We still have a bullish EMAs crossing and market is above the rising five days SMA. This level (1163) is going to be very important if market decides to change direction. Bellow 1163 most likely we are also going to see a bearish EMAs crossing. But let's not anticipate! Bulls still seem to be in control after advancing 7 out of the last 8 weeks.

SPX is very close to the "golden crossing" SMA50 crossing SMA200, a crossing watched by many people. Besides 5 days SMA (1163) other potential support levels are around 1150 and 1130.

I am not trading gold but for those who are interested I need to say that I noticed a bearish EMAs crossing. This is, of course, for active traders, gold bugs (the "buy and hold" crew) don't seem to be bothered by the latest weakness most likely due to some strength noticed in the dollar. On longer time frames gold is still extremely bullish (weekly DMI is green, price way above SMA200) but the rally started at the beginning of August seems to take a break here.

In the next few days I may do an analysis on different sectors. As you know some of them are not necessarily trading with the rest of the market.

All the best!



  1. Looks like a good time to buy some gold on a dip in my view.
    I am wondering if the SPX will reach the 1200 to 1220 level projected from the inverse head and shoulders pattern noticed some weeks ago?
    Perhaps the total amount of monetization announced for QE2 will play a factor?

  2. the problem is that you will never know how far the correction is going to go. There is a clear "sell signal on gold, I would rather wait to get a "buy" signal than buying the dip right now then to watch gold moving further down. This is my philosophy, never anticipate the market, act on "buy" or 'sell" signals and hold tight until getting another "sell" or "buy" signal. I know I am always missing the tops and the bottoms with this method but I also never fight the market.


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