Tuesday, June 1, 2010


Big drop in S&P today, no less than 19 points or 1.75%. The index is now just above the most recent low at 1067. This level (and to a lesser extent the intra-day 1,045 low seen on May 25) need to be watched carefully for a potential break on the downside. Needless to say the short term bullish momentum that was built last week was pretty much canceled today. In all fairness EMAs did not give the buy signal (no crossing yet) that's why it's always better to wait for the actual signal before buying. What I see particularly bearish on short term now is that S&P moved bellow the weekly uptrend line (cyan arrow).
FXI lost 2.3% today. The good news is that the uptrend line on daily chart did function as support but the question is if it's going to hold tomorrow or not. EMA50 is still above EMA100 on 30 minutes chart but now the price slipped bellow 5 day MA.
In Europe, Spain's index was hammered again, down 3.4%, while Germany ended only 0.8% lower but both markets closed before the big drop on Wall Street.

Gold continues to be bullish since the beginning on April when it did manage to climb above a declining trend line. We had at that time a nice confirmation from DMI (or DI) a momentum indicator I am going to talk some other time (rectangle, lower panel). I rarely trade gold but those who do are doing very well, I am sure.
Oil is doing worst than the rest of the market, it's 15% bellow a declining SMA200. Also EMA50 did cross EMA100 on daily chart (ellipse), my last signal that a stock is in a bear market almost for sure. 30 minutes chart looks a little more bullish than the daily chart but with the long term so bearish one should be very cautions even on short and intermediary terms.
A very important day tomorrow, bulls need to defend 1,067. Otherwise, further move down is very likely. I won't expect bulls to give up too easily, but I was wrong before. The drop today did not mean too much technically speaking. A 20-25 points up tomorrow won't be too significant either. A drop bellow two important support levels 1,067 or 1050 (February low) would be significant. A push above the downtrend line (around 1,115), SMA200 at 1,105 or if we see EMA50 crossing EMA100 on 30 minutes chart, that would be extremely significant. Otherwise, is just "noise". The red arrow indicate the level where the bulls could take control again, above 1120. A lot of work to do!
At this point I am not confident going either short or long. I made some speculative bets but I am mostly in cash until I see some clarification on either side.

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